CURRENT RESEARCH PROJECTS

TERM LIMITS AND INTEREST GROUPS

Gary Moncrief and Joel A. Thompson

Limiting the terms of elected officials is a form of electoral engineering.  It has become a particularly popular form in the United States, where 18 states now have imposed term limits on their state legislators. 

To date, most of the literature on term limits has been speculative, generating propositions about the effect on candidates, campaigns, the legislative institution, and the policymaking process.  A few studies (e.g. Carey, et. al.; Council of State Governments) have surveyed legislators themselves about their perceptions of the effects of term limits.  But one group of knowledgeables have not been surveyed: the interest group representatives.

Many of the hypotheses about the consequences of term limits relate specifically to interest groups.  For example, proponents of term limits argue that limits will break the "cozy" relationship that exists between some lobbyists and legislators.  Opponents of term limits, on the other hand, suggest that term limits will make interest groups more influential, since legislators will be inexperienced.

We are conducting a survey of interest group representatives and public affairs specialists in several term-limited states, examining their perception of term limits.  In the first stage of the study, we use the list of registered lobbyists available from the Secretaries of State to select a random sample of 150 interest group representatives from each of three states where term limits are now in effect: California, Maine, and Colorado.  In the second stage, to be conducted after the legislative sessions in 2000, surveys will be sent to three additional term-limited states (Arkansas, Michigan, and Oregon).

The questionnaire asks specific information about the lobbyists' perceptions of the effect of term limits.  In particular, we ask if they perceive any difference in the types of candidates under term limits, any difference in campaign strategies, any difference in the way policymaking occurs, and any difference in their relationship with the legislators.  

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